Indian general elections, 2004

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India is holding a general election in four separate phases between 20 April and 10 May 2004. Voters will elect the 14th Lok Sabha, whose tenure will last till 2009. Simultaneous with the parliamentary election, which will lead to the formation of a new central government, seven states will hold assembly elections. The National Democratic Alliance led by the BJP will be seeking its second full term in office.

Table of contents

1 Schedule
2 Magnitude
3 Expenses
4 Background
5 Forecast
6 Events
7 External Links

Schedule

The election dates for the parliamentary elections are:

April 20 - 141 Constituencies
April 26 - 137 Constituencies
May 5 - 83 Constituencies
May 10 - 182 Constituencies

Counting will begin simultaneously on 13 May.

Magnitude

India is the world's largest democracy with 675 million people eligible to exercise their franchise in 2004. Of these, 14 million people will also be able to cast their ballots in state elections. Indian elections are held in phases in order to maintain law and order. Many states are considered sensitive areas, requiring extensive deployment of the armed forces. Elections in the past have largely been free and fair. The Election Commission of India is responsible for deciding the dates and conducting elections according to constitutional provisions. On an average, each candidate has to reach 1.2 million voters (3.1 million in the largest constituency). The Election commission of India is trying to employ more than a million electronic voting machines for these elections.

Expenses

According to the magazine India Today, 115.62 billion rupees (approx USD $2.6 billion) are expected to be spent in campaigning for the elections by all political parties combined. Most of the money is spent on the people involved in the election. The Election Commission has limited poll expenses to Rs. 2.5 million (USD $57,000 approx.) per constituency. Thus, the actual spending is expected to be approximately 10 times the limit. About 6.5 billion rupees (approx. USD $150 million) are expected to be spent on mobilising 150,000 vehicles. About a billion rupees are expected to be spent on helicopters and aircrafts.

Background

Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee had recommended premature dissolution of the 13th Lok Sabha (as per a provision of the Constitution) to pave the way for early elections apparently in view of the recent good showing of the BJP in the Assembly elections in four states. The two "major parties" in India are the BJP (led by Atal Behari Vajpayee) and the Congress led by Sonia Gandhi. The BJP will fight the elections as part of the NDA while the Congress, for the first time, has forged an alliance with smaller like-minded parties at the Centre.

Forecast

Most analysts believe the NDA to be in a strong position to win the elections; this assessment is also supported by opinion polls. The party is riding on a wave of the so-called "feel good factor", typified by its promotional campaign "India shining". The economy has shown steady growth in the last few months and the disinvestment of government owned production units (continuation of India's liberalisation policies initiated in the early 1990s) has been on track. The Forex Reserves of India stand at more than USD $100 billion (7th largest in the world and a record for India). The service sector has also generated a lot of jobs.

The Congress has launched a somewhat subdued and delayed campaign to counter the propaganda of the NDA which, in contrast, has been high-profile and the source of much controversy and debate. The Congress Party is riding on slogans like "Congress ka haath aam aadmi ke saath" or "The Hand of Congress (the party's official symbol) is with the common man," indicating that it is banking on support from the vast majority of Indians and not so much on the upper middle class and the elite. According to their Manifesto the Congress Party, if elected to power, will create 10 million new jobs, by employing more people in the government-owned companies and production units.

Events

April 22 - Tripura, where polling was delayed because of a local holiday, votes for its two MPs. A turnout of close to 60% is reported, despite calls for absention made by separatist rebels.
April 20 - The first phase of the vote is held, with average turnouts of between 50% and 55%. Voting is reported as brisk, and the day unfolds relatively smoothly, albeit with some glitches reported with the electronic voting machines. Isolated violent incidents take place in Kashmir, Jammu, Manipur, and Jharkhand.
April 8 - The NDA's top leaders meet in New Delhi to adopt its manifesto for the elections, "Agenda for Development and Good Governance".
April 7 - Ram Jethmalani says he will contest the elections against Prime Minister Vajpayee as an independent candidate from Lucknow. He claims he will be supported by the Congress and some other parties.
April 6 - The BJP and the AIADMK told the Election Commission that they would not stop raising the issue of the foreign origin of Congress president Sonia Gandhi.
April 4 - A FIR is lodged against external affairs minister Yashwant Sinha for alleged violation of election code of conduct during a poll meeting in Ranchi. Besides Sinha, FIRs were lodged against three other BJP leaders who participated in the meeting.