Hubbert peak
The theory of the Hubbert peak or oil peak is due to the geophysicist M. King Hubbert.Hubbert made use of a mathematical model of the rate of petroleum extraction. According to this model, the rate of production of oil is determined by the rate of new oil well discovery; a "Hubbert peak" in the oil extraction rate was forecast to be followed by a gradual decline of oil production to nothing. This behavior has the form of a Hubbert curve; see that article for mathematical details.
Based on his model, Hubbert forecasted (accurately) that, following from the peak of well discovery in 1948, oil production in the contiguous United States would peak in the late 1960s based on a total production of 150 billion barrels or in the early 1970s based on a total production of 200 billion barrels. It actually peaked in 1970, and has been decreasing since then. According to this model, complete exhaustion of continental U.S. oil reserves would then follow by the end of the 21st century. While the Hubbert model has been very accurate for forecasting oil production in the contigous United States, it has fit much less well the production curves in other areas.
Since the mid-1960's, geologists have used Hubbert's model to forecast the peak in world oil production. Due to difficulty in obtaining accurate data the forecasts vary somewhat. Some early projections had peak production having already occurred, and these seem to be false. Some of the geologists known as the pessimists forecast the peak in the range of the present to 2010, while those known as the optimists forecast in the range of 2010 to 2020, giving more time for worldwide renewable energy research, and political adjustments.
Some people believe that if the Hubbert model is accurate, there are drastic implications for human culture and technological society, which is currently heavily dependent on oil as a fuel and chemical feedstock. Some of them envisage a Malthusian catastrophe occurring as the oil finally runs out.
However, the validity of such models are still disputed by many geophysicists, and most predictive economic models show that oil running out will lead to its timely replacement by other fuel sources and chemical feedstocks. Further, the total worldwide rate of production and of known oil reserves since the 1970's has not followed a Hubbert curve. Two reasons for this have been increased conservation by many industries, and use of new technology to find and extract oil.
References:
- M. King Hubbert, Energy from Fossil Fuels, Science, Vol. 109, Pgs. 103- 109, Feb. 4, 1949.
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