Enlargement of the European Union
The European Union originally consisted of 6 member states. It has since grown to 15 member states, and several more states plan to join: 10 new members in 2004, 2 new members in 2007, and possibly more after that. In order to join the Union, a state needs to fulfil the economic and political conditions generally known as the Copenhagen criteria.
For details see History of the European Union.
Summary of past enlargements
| Country | Pop | Area | GDP | GDP per capita |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 8.2 | 83858 | 227.7 | 27900 |
| Belgium | 10.3 | 30510 | 299.7 | 29200 |
| Denmark | 5.4 | 43094 | 155.3 | 28900 |
| Finland | 5.2 | 337030 | 133.8 | 25800 |
| France | 60.2 | 547030 | 1558 | 26000 |
| Germany | 82.4 | 357021 | 2160 | 26200 |
| Greece | 10.7 | 131940 | 203.3 | 19100 |
| Ireland | 3.9 | 70280 | 113.7 | 29300 |
| Italy | 58.0 | 301320 | 1455 | 25100 |
| Luxembourg | 0.5 | 2586 | 21.9 | 48900 |
| Netherlands | 16.2 | 41526 | 437.8 | 27200 |
| Portugal | 10.1 | 92931 | 195.2 | 19400 |
| Spain | 40.2 | 504782 | 850.7 | 21200 |
| Sweden | 8.9 | 449964 | 230.7 | 26000 |
| United Kingdom | 60.1 | 244820 | 1528 | 25500 |
| Subtotal (EU-15) | 380.3 | 3238692 | 9570.8 | 25166 |
Notes (for this and later tables):
- Pop is population in millions
- Area is in km²
- GDP in billions of USD, at purchasing power parity, 2001 figures
- GDP per cap is per capita GDP in USD, year as in previous column
The 2004 enlargement
The European Commission's Strategic Report of October 9, 2002 recommended 10 candidate members for inclusion in the EU in 2004: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia, Malta and Cyprus. Their combined population is roughly 75 million; their combined Gross Domestic Product is about 840 billion US dollars (purchasing power parity; CIA World Factbook 2003), similar in size to that of Spain.
After negotiations between the candidates and the member states, the final decision to invite these nations to join was announced on December 13, 2002 in Copenhagen, with the European Parliament voting in favour of this on April 9, 2003.
On April 16, 2003 the Treaty of Accession was signed by the 10 new members and the 15 old ones in Athens [1].
(The Treaty's full name is: Treaty between the Kingdom of Belgium, the Kingdom of Denmark, the Federal Republic of Germany, the Hellenic Republic, the Kingdom of Spain, the French Republic, Ireland, the Italian Republic, the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, the Kingdom of the Netherlands, the Republic of Austria, the Portuguese Republic, the Republic of Finland, the Kingdom of Sweden, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (Member States of the European Union) and the Czech Republic, the Republic of Estonia, the Republic of Cyprus, the Republic of Latvia, the Republic of Lithuania, the Republic of Hungary, the Republic of Malta, the Republic of Poland, the Republic of Slovenia, the Slovak Republic, concerning the accession of the Czech Republic, the Republic of Estonia, the Republic of Cyprus, the Republic of Latvia, the Republic of Lithuania, the Republic of Hungary, the Republic of Malta, the Republic of Poland, the Republic of Slovenia and the Slovak Republic to the European Union.)
The final remaining step was the ratification of the treaty by the current member states and by each of the candidate nations. Ratification in the former was done by the parliaments of the member states alone, whereas in the latter the ratification was first subject to a referendum, except for Cyprus where the parliament was solely responsible. The 2003 referenda dates (in four of the countries, a two-day ballot is held), and the outcomes in each of the candidate countries, are as follows:
- Malta - 54% in favour (March 8)
- Slovenia - 90% in favour (March 23)
- Hungary - 83% in favour (April 12)
- Lithuania - 91% in favour (May 10-11)
- Slovakia - 92% in favour (May 16-17)
- Poland - 77% in favour (June 7-8)
- Czech Republic - 77% in favour (June 13-14)
- Estonia - 67% in favour (September 14)
- Latvia - 67% in favour (September 20)
| Country | Pop | Area | GDP | GDP per capita |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 1.4 | 45226 | 15.5 | 11000 |
| Latvia | 2.3 | 64589 | 21.0 | 8900 |
| Lithuania | 3.5 | 65200 | 30.0 | 8400 |
| Poland | 38.6 | 312685 | 373.2 | 9700 |
| Czech Republic | 10.2 | 78866 | 157.1 | 15300 |
| Hungary | 10.0 | 93030 | 134.0 | 13300 |
| Slovakia | 5.4 | 48845 | 67.3 | 12400 |
| Slovenia | 1.9 | 20253 | 37.1 | 19200 |
| Malta | 0.4 | 316 | 6.8 | 17200 |
| Cyprus | 0.8 | 9250 | 9.4 | 15000 |
| Subtotal | 74.6 | 738260 | 851.4 | 11413 |
| EU-15 | 380.3 | 3238692 | 9570.8 | 25166 |
| EU-25 | 454.9 | 3976952 | 10422.2 | 22911 |
The 2007 enlargement
| Country | Pop | Area | GDP | GDP per capita |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria | 7.5 | 110910 | 49.2 | 6500 |
| Romania | 22.3 | 238391 | 169.3 | 7600 |
| Subtotal | 29.8 | 349301 | 218.5 | 7332 |
| Incl. 2004 | 104.4 | 1087561 | 1069.6 | 10245 |
| EU-27 | 484.7 | 4326253 | 10640.7 | 21953 |
| Country | Pop | Area | GDP | GDP per capita |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 68.1 | 780580 | 489.7 | 7300 |
| Croatia | 4.4 | 56542 | 43.1 | 9800 |
| Macedonia | 2.0 | 25333 | 10.6 | 5100 |
| Subtotal | 74.5 | 862455 | 543.4 | 7294 |
| Total | 178.9 | 1950016 | 1613.0 | 9016 |
| EU-30 | 559.2 | 5188788 | 11184.1 | 20000 |
Source: CIA World Factbook 2003
Turkey
Turkey was officially recognised as a candidate for enlargement in 1999, after having been an Associate Member since 1963, but it has not yet been permitted to start negotiations due to concerns about its human rights record and about the involvement of the military in Turkish politics. It is however encouraged to continue its reform process.
Critics oppose Turkish membership for several reasons, including that most of Turkey's territory is not European but Asian, and human rights issues. A prevalent point of view in Turkey is that some in the EU are reluctant to accept a Muslim state, albeit a strongly secular one, into what is seen by some as a Christian club. Proponents answer that Turkey has been intimately involved in European history for about 500 years and that it considers itself a European state.
Croatia
Croatia applied for EU membership in 2003 and is in the process of becoming an official candidate. The announcement on whether Croatia will be granted official candidate status is set to come in early 2004.
FYRO Macedonia
The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has also announced its desire to join the EU, applying to become an official candidate in January 2004. It is expected to get its official reply in 2005 on whether the EU will start accession negotiations with it.
The FYROM also must resolve its disputes with Greece before talks can begin.
As in the cases of Turkey and Morocco, the virtue of being in Asia geographically rather than Europe might preclude its inclusion into the EU as well.
Other enlargement possibilities
Switzerland
Switzerland began talks with the EEC for membership, but a Swiss referendum in 1992 froze them. Further referenda (the last on March 4, 2001) have shown a majority against membership. It is thought that the fear of a loss of neutrality and independence is the key issue against membership.
The Swiss federal goverment policy for now is to close specific agreements with the EU on freedom of movement for people and workers [1].Iceland and Norway
Both Iceland and Norway are reluctant to join because they want to keep control of fishery resources in their territorial waters. While Norway has applied twice for EEC and EU membership (and two referenda on the issue have been lost), Iceland has not.Rest of ex-Yugoslavian countries and Albania
The remainder of the nations created from former Yugoslavia and also Albania might join before 2020, if their economies improve and the ethnic strife subsides; in these countries many political leaders advocate joining.Russia, Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine
It is generally thought that Russia will be unable to join, at least during the next few decades, since its sheer size would severely offset the internal balance of the Union. Belarus, Moldova and the Ukraine, which are closely linked to Russia, will probably also remain outside the Union, at least for the next couple of decades.Microstates
As for the very small states, such as Liechtenstein, San Marino, Andorra, Vatican City and Monaco, it is unlikely that they will ever join, as their very existence as sovereign nations is tightly bound up with their special economic laws, which are not compatible with EU standards.Tunisia
Tunisia entered into an Association Agreement with the European Union in 1995 which started removing tariffs and other trade barriers on most goods in the 1998-2008 period. Once the free trade area is fully functional, the status of Tunisia with regards to the EU will equal the present status of Norway and Iceland. However, no further involvement is planned beyond that point.Morocco
Morocco has submitted applications to join the EU several times, but it has been turned down since it is not considered a European country. Even if this obstacle was ignored, other factors such as the developing economy or unresolved border issues with several of its neighbours would still hinder its application.Israel
The Israeli government has hinted several times that a EU membership bid is a possibility. It is unknown whether talks will begin, given the current status of instability in the Middle East.Miscellaneous
Sovereign Order of Malta
Although a recognized sovereign subject of international law, its precise nature (i.e. the question of statehood) is disputed.External link
Member countries: Austria | Belgium | Cyprus | Czech Republic | Denmark | Estonia | Finland | France | Germany | Greece | Hungary | Ireland | Italy | Latvia | Lithuania | Luxembourg | Malta | Netherlands | Poland | Portugal | Slovakia | Slovenia | Spain | Sweden | United Kingdom
Recognised candidate countries: Bulgaria | Romania | Turkey
Likely candidate countries: Croatia | Macedonia (FYROM)