Australian legislative election, 2004
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Australia in 2004. All 150 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 seats in the 76-member Senate will be up for election. The conservative coalition of the Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister John Howard, and the National Party of Australia led by John Anderson, will be seeking a fourth three-year term. They will be opposed by the Australian Labor Party, led by Mark Latham, as well as minor parties such as the Australian Democrats and the Australian Greens.
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2 The House of Representatives 3 The Senate 4 Issues 5 Party leaders 6 Election timetable |
Under Australia's Westminster system, the date of the election is a matter for the discretion of the Prime Minister. To call an election, the Prime Minister advises the Governor-General to dissolve the current Parliament by proclamation and issue writs for the election of a new Parliament. There must be at least one month between the issuing of the writs and the date of the election.
(When a federal election is called, writs for the election of Senators are issued by the Governors of the Australian states, on the request of the Governor-General. This is because under the Constitution of Australia the Senate represents the states, although it is in fact elected on party lines.)
The current Parliament was elected on 10 November 2001, for a three-year term. The Parliament's term, however, is dated not from the election itself but from the date of the first sitting of the Parliament following the election, which was in March 2002. The last date on which an election can be held is Saturday 16 April 2005 (see the note at the end of this article). It is considered highly unlikely, however, that the Prime Minister will delay calling the election beyond October or November 2004.
Although the Prime Minister can call an election for the House of Representatives at any time, the timing of Senate elections is restricted by the Constitution. Senators' terms always expire on 30 June, regardless of the date of the election, and a normal election for half the Senate cannot be held more than a year before the Senators are due to take their seats. The terms of the Senators elected in 1998 expire on 30 June 2005 (Senators serve six-year terms). A half-Senate election cannot therefore be held before 30 June 2004.
The Prime Minister has the option, however, of calling a double dissolution election, at which the whole Senate as well as the House of Representatives must face re-election. This is a device for resolving deadlocks between the House of Representatives and the Senate. The government already has the prerequisites for a double dissolution, because the Senate has twice rejected several pieces of government legislation. A double dissolution cannot be held within the last six months of a Parliament's term, meaning that this option will expire for the current government in September.
After the 2001 election the party strengths in the House of Representatives were as follows:
During 2003 new constituency boundaries were drawn up in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. This had the effect of changing one Labor held seat in Victoria into a notionally Liberal seat.
The parties will therefore go into a 2004 election with the following notional strengths:
Because the Senate is elected by proportional representation, it is very difficult for either of the major parties to gain a majority. The last Prime Minister to have a majority in the Senate was Malcolm Fraser in the period 1975-1981. Since then the balance of power in the Senate has been held by minor parties and independent Senators.
The current state of the parties in the Senate is as follows:
There is likely to be change in the distribution of seats among the minor parties. The Australian Democrats have suffered from internal conflict and leadership changes since 2001 and are considered in grave danger of losing two or three seats, probably to the Australian Greens, who have seen a surge in their support in opinion polls. Pauline Hanson's One Nation has disintegrated since the withdrawal from politics of Pauline Hanson. Their sole Senate seat is considered likely to revert to the National Party.
John Howard won the 2001 elections after trailing Labor in the opinion polls for two years, by seizing on the issues of national security, following the September 11 terrorist attacks, and border protection against illegal immigrants (see MS Tampa). It is unlikely that these issues will dominate the 2004 election to nearly the same extent. Howard's campaign, nevertheless, will seek to portray him as a tough and experienced leader who can be trusted with Australia's security, and who has good relations with Australia's principal allies, the United States and Britain.
On domestic issues, polls have consistently shown that the Liberals are regarded as sound managers of the economy, but that voters are opposed to the government's policies in the fields of health, education, the environment and other areas of social policy. Labor has accused the government of seeking to dismantle Australia's system of universal health insurance, Medicare, of restructuring Australia's higher education system to the benefit of students from wealthier families, and of endangering the environment by refusing to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.
The election will therefore hinge on whether voters choose to give priority to issues of national security and border protection, or to issues of social policy. Labor's new leader, Mark Latham, has sought to improve Labor's image on national security issues by stressing Labor's support for the U.S. Alliance, and to develop new policies on border protection. Likewise, Howard spent much of 2003 introducing new health and education initiatives in an effort to improve the government's standing in these areas. Unconventional issues such as the "crisis of masculinity" and politicians' superannuation, raised by Mark Latham, may also play a part in the election.
The last date on which the next election can be held is calculated in the following way:
Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House."
Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof."
Section 156 (1) of the Electoral Act says: "the date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ."
Section 157 of the Electoral Act says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination."
This parliament first met on 12 February 2002. Therefore it expires on 12 February 2005. The writs must therefore be issued by 22 February 2005 (ten days after the expiry). The last date on which nominations can close is therefore 21 March 2005 (27 days after the writs). The last Saturday on which polling can take place is therefore 16 April 2005 (26 days after nominations).Date
The House of Representatives
Party Seats
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Liberal Party 69
National Party of Australia 13
Australian Labor Party 65
Independents 3
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Total 150
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In October 2002 the Australian Greens won a by-election in a seat previously held by the Labor Party following the resignation of the sitting member.Party Seats
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Liberal Party 70
National Party of Australia 13
Australian Labor Party 63
Australian Greens 1
Independents 3
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Total 150
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To gain a majority in the House of Representatives, the Labor Party must therefore make a net gain of 13 seats. If Labor were to gain 12 seats, and the Green member to be re-elected, it is probable that the Green member would support a minority Labor government. If Labor were to gain 11 seats, it is possible, though far from certain, that one of the three independent members would support a Labor government. The other two independent members are conservatives.The Senate
Party Senators
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Liberal Party 31
National Party of Australia 4
Australian Labor Party 28
Australian Democrats 7
Australian Greens 2
Pauline Hanson's One Nation 1
Independents 3
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Total 76
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The Liberal and National parties thus need a gain of four seats to win a majority in the Senate, while the Labor Party needs a gain of 11 seats. Neither of these outcomes is considered likely.Issues
Party leaders
Election timetable